In the report published by the company on the 12th November, the Italian GDP is expected to grow with a rate between zero and +1% in 2014 compared to the estimate of between -0,5% and +0,5% made in august.
Italy is also experiencing an improvement in the OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) from 100,7 in august to 100,9 today. The CLIs is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles – fluctuation of the economic activity along its long term potential level.
Returning to the Moody’s report, the analysis states that “after a long period of turbulence in economic and financial markets, the global economy seems to have embarked on a more stable road for the next two years”. “Significant progress has been made to meet the structural imbalances after the financial crisis, and the efforts made to facilitate the necessary adjustments in the private sector have paid off”.
Regarding the prospects of growth and development at a global level, Moody’s reports that while the prospects of short-term growth have been attenuated in some countries – particularly the USA – elsewhere the economic activities are showing further signs of improvement. Overall, Moody’s expects that the economies of G-20 will grow with about 1,3% in 2013 and 2% in 2014. The economic growth should gain further momentum in 2015, arriving at 2,5%.